Trying to forecast where exchange rates will move next ranks among the more thankless exercises in finance, arguably harder than predicting equity markets because it demands getting the relative view right on two economies simultaneously, not just one. A currency's fate hinges on geopolitics, debt to GDP, inflation trajectories, interest rate differentials, bond yields, and sovereign creditworthiness, all interacting at once and often pulling in different directions. Yet for investors domiciled in countries with historically weaker currencies, ignoring this dimension of portfolio construction is not really an option.
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