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In this episode of The Brink, Andrew and Jake are joined by Iran expert Kasra Aarabi to examine the state of the Iranian regime after the recent conflict with Israel and the United States, and to ask whether the Islamic Republic is weaker than it appears.
Drawing on sources inside Iran and years of research into the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Kasra explains the internal power struggles unfolding within the regime, the growing influence of younger and more radical elements of the IRGC, and why the battle for succession after Ayatollah Khamenei could reshape the future of the Islamic Republic.
The conversation explores the regime’s ideology, its nuclear ambitions, and the role of the IRGC in projecting Iranian power across the Middle East. We discuss the recent negotiations with the Trump administration, the future of Hezbollah, and why Tehran believes time is on its side despite suffering significant military setbacks.
Kasra also examines the relationship between Iran and regional actors such as Qatar, Pakistan, and Turkey, the wider geopolitical implications of the conflict, and the growing tensions between Washington, Jerusalem, and European capitals.
Finally, we turn to the Iranian people. Kasra explains why many Iranians continue to oppose the regime despite years of repression, why protest movements remain a serious threat to the Islamic Republic, and whether the current moment could mark the beginning of the end for one of the world's most entrenched authoritarian systems.
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Chapters
00:00 Introduction
03:42 Who Really Controls Iran Now?
08:30 The Islamic Republic Is A Mafia State
12:10 Purges Are Coming To Iran's Regime
14:43 Has The Regime Become More Extreme?
15:30 The Radicalisation Of The IRGC
20:35 The Rise Of Iran's Hardline Next Generation
21:54 Mahdism, Apocalypse & The IRGC Worldview
25:47 What Does Iran Actually Want From A Deal?
30:39 How Tehran Plans To Split Trump And Netanyahu
33:04 Iran's Nuclear Strategy: Delay, Delay, Delay
36:32 Why The Regime Fears Donald Trump
42:11 Does Iran Have Any Real Allies Left?
46:45 What Do Ordinary Iranians Think?
49:50 Why Many Iranians Still Trust Trump?
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