{"version":"1.0","type":"rich","provider_name":"Acast","provider_url":"https://acast.com","height":250,"width":700,"html":"<iframe src=\"https://embed.acast.com/$/6788c4b6bc4d37e16f4d6ae3/6788c4d102606f460c05cb25?\" frameBorder=\"0\" width=\"700\" height=\"250\"></iframe>","title":"013: Gerald Ashley on decision making cycles, Knightian uncertainty & bird food","description":"<p>Fellow BSers,</p><p>If you&apos;re in the mood for listening to the sharpest minds talking absolute BS, you&apos;re in the right place.</p><p>Which naturally brings me to my guest <a href='http://www.geraldashley.com/'>Gerald Ashley</a>, and as we&apos;ve done in the past, today is part 1 of 2. I think bitesize is more digestible and there&apos;s no harm in a gentle pause between this week&apos;s very savoury smack in the face of beef wellington before indulging next time in the palette cleansing ice cream finale.</p><p>Gerald has years of experience in financial markets, from Baring Brothers to Dow Jones to the Bank for International Settlements. So he&apos;s been exposed to a fair share of BS in his time. He is now a speaker, advisor, broadcaster and writer on change, risk and decision making. Indeed, Gerald is one of <em>the</em> doyens on these subjects.</p><p>He is insightful, warm and entertaining with a keen ear and eye for our delusions and dogma; both of which he is quick to quash in this conversation. </p><p>Why not take a second and share the interview on social media. This is the best decision you’ll make all week; and there’s no risk, only upside.</p><p><a href='%%share_url%%'>Share</a></p><p><b>Today, we&apos;re talking about:</b></p><ul><li>Birds foraging for food and what that teaches us about dramatic change and decision making cycles</li><li>We talk about our model mania - we want to model everything and assign it a risk probability. Quick spoiler folks, you can&apos;t do it</li><li>We discuss the difference between risk and uncertainty and Gerald explains <a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knightian_uncertainty#:~:text=In%20economics%2C%20Knightian%20uncertainty%20is,or%20a%20parameter&apos;s%20confidence%20interval).'>Knightian uncertainty</a> and how credit card data is so very different from terrorist attack data</li><li>And as always, there&apos;s a book recommendation or two</li></ul><p><b>Books referenced in the conversation:</b></p><ul><li><a href='https://www.amazon.co.uk/Origin-Wealth-Evolution-Complexity-Economics/dp/0712676619/ref=asc_df_0712676619/?tag=googshopuk-21&amp;linkCode=df0&amp;hvadid=310623486223&amp;hvpos=&amp;hvnetw=g&amp;hvrand=5698774513342579418&amp;hvpone=&amp;hvptwo=&amp;hvqmt=&amp;hvdev=c&amp;hvdvcmdl=&amp;hvlocint=&amp;hvlocphy=9045954&amp;hvtargid=pla-459536808673&amp;psc=1&amp;th=1&amp;psc=1'>The Origin Of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics</a>, by Eric D. Beinhocker</li></ul><p><b>Share and win absolutely nothing</b></p><p>If you like my shows and weekly writings, do share on Twitter and with friends. There’s no giveaway apart from my eternal appreciation and love; and the enormous dopamine hit you’ll get buy doing it. Trust me, it works.</p><p><a href='https://aloadofbs.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=share&amp;action=share'>Share A Load of BS: The Behavioural Science Podcast </a></p><p><b>Listen on your favourite app</b></p><p>You can also find all my podcasts on your favourite platform: do subscribe on <a href='https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/paths-less-trodden-interviews/id1575240086'>Apple</a>, <a href='https://open.spotify.com/show/7j9e807YyfTicJmhu2eI2Y?si=_BcMX1eTRWOh_nZ0LfmRDg&amp;dl_branch=1'>Spotify</a> and others, and give me a 5 star review! And let me know what you think of it all, here or on Twitter <a href='https://twitter.com/danielsjross'>@danielsjross</a>.</p><p>Now enjoy the show!</p><p>Daniel</p>","author_name":"A LOAD OF BS ON SPORT"}