In his latest podcast interview, Nick Cohen talks to doyen pollster Peter Kellner, founder of YouGov, to discuss the current state of British politics and the potential return to a two-party system dominated by Labour and the Conservatives. Peter and Nick talk about how Reform Party support has declined from around 30% to the low 20s due to controversies over racism and financial issues, while Labour has gained under new leader Andy Burnham, reaching 26-28% in polls.
They discuss how the first-past-the-post electoral system creates challenges for multi-party politics, with tactical voting often determining outcomes rather than voters' true preferences. The discussion also examines the Greens' position under Zak Polanski, noting their potential to split the Labour vote despite limited electoral success, and explored whether a pro-European stance could help unite the centre-left and challenge the Conservative Party, which has struggled to recover from its 2024 defeat despite positive media coverage. Peter Kellner explains how the smell of government failures and scandals linger in the noses of voters and that defeated parties typically take about 10 years to recover. Peter says the next Conservative leader likely isn't currently in Parliament, suggesting the party needs to address its internal divisions before returning to power.
Legendary pollster @PeterKellner1 is a founder of the leading polling company, YouGov. Peter's Substack column, The Politics Counter, is a must-read on UK politics and free to access Substack column on the state of UK politics.
Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. You can also watch The Lowdown on YouTube.
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