This week, Nick Cohen interviews Phillips O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at St. Andrews University, about the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran. O'Brien explained how Iran has effectively \"toyed with America\" by continuing attacks despite Trump's attempts to de-escalate, forcing the U.S. to resume military operations. He describes how Iran is exploiting two key American vulnerabilities: Trump's need to declare victory and the pressure on U.S. allies in the Gulf region.
Phillips highlights the significant depletion of America's missile stockpiles, noting that the U.S. and its partners are firing as many Patriot missiles in one week as they would build in a year. He criticises the corruption and division within American institutions, including the military, which he said has been compromised by Trump's promotion of loyalists over competent officers. Phillips and Nick discuss Iran's potential war aims, including control over the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining their nuclear program, sanctions relief, and withdrawal of U.S. military presence in the region. Phillips concludes that the conflict would likely end after the November 2026 election, as the war has become increasingly unpopular and pressure would mount on Washington to find a settlement.
Read Phillips' own regular Substack column - Phillips's Newsletter. Phillips is also professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews.
Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 regular Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond is another must-read.
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