The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 was partly staged through the border between Belarus and Ukraine. This is not by chance: despite gaining independence in 1991, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, since 1994 Belarus has been controlled by Alexander Lukashenko, a Russia-aligned dictator. As a result, it has remained a relatively unknown entity, alienated from the West while occupying a crucial geo-strategic stretch of land, between the Baltic states, Poland, Ukraine and Russia.
Prior to 1991, Belarus enjoyed a very brief year of independence between 1918-19. And yet, it had long been a group of people who knew they were distinct, with their own language and identity — much as is the case today. Yet the increasing connection between the state and its neighbour Russia, and more significantly the dependence of the authoritarian Lukashenko upon Putin for his political survival, means the danger of being consumed by Russia is very real. This is potentially Ukraine, but without a democratically elected head of state, a fiercely independent populace and a powerful military.
The US has recently taken an interest in Belarus, partly to buy its potash reserves and partly to annoy Canada and the European Union — which has never paid enough attention to Belarus, though it poses a significant threat to the eastern states. Katia Glod, Deputy Head of Foreign Policy at NEST is not only a native Belarusian but also a true expert on the state and its positions. In a must-listen conversation, she explains the complexities of the state as well as its entanglement with Russia and the war in Ukraine. A fascinating set of insights!
This episode was recorded on 8 October 2026
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