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Today I’m joined by Susan Cook-Patton, Lead Reforestation Scientist at The Nature Conservancy, to get into the weeds on applying science to forest carbon investment decision making. In this conversation, Susan breaks down what “durability” really means in practice—how risks vary by location, project type, and species, and why investors should be assessing likelihood, severity, and the probability of regrowth. She shares how her team is developing tools and maps to help investors quickly identify higher- and lower-risk landscapes, bringing greater certainty to carbon outcomes under future climate conditions. We talk project design choices that can reduce wildfire impacts, the role (and limitations) of buffer pools, and emerging alternatives like permanence trust funds and storage years. Susan also shares where remote sensing is improving fast—and why data sharing may be the biggest unlock for better, cheaper carbon accounting.
“It’s not about eliminating all risks. It’s about understanding them so you can plan appropriately and put compensation mechanisms in place if disturbances do occur.”
00:10 — Welcome to Forest Invest + today’s guest
00:30 — Icebreaker: Susan’s favourite tree (and why caterpillars matter)
01:16 — Who Susan is + her role at The Nature Conservancy (TNC)
02:27 — What “reforestation” really means (working forests, conservation, agroforestry)
03:05 — Applying science to forest carbon investment decisions
04:43 — Durability 101: why risk varies by place, species, and project type
06:36 — Mapping risk: likelihood, severity, and probability of regrowth
09:00 — Social context: designing projects communities actually want
10:12 — Project design for resilience: species choice, density, thinning, prescribed fire
11:55 — Buffer pools: minimums vs risk-based contributions
13:08 — Beyond buffer pools: trust funds, stacking strategies, “ton-year” approaches
15:54 — Monitoring innovation: shifting from field plots to remote monitoring
16:53 — Remote sensing challenges: uncertainty, benchmarks, and inconsistent methods
20:08 — Terrestrial laser scanning: better carbon estimates (and how to use it wisely)
22:08 — Data sharing as the big unlock (and reducing duplicated fieldwork)
23:42 — Standards are evolving: learning fast without “throwing the baby out”
26:44 — “Permanent” vs “durability”: making rules fit how forests really work
29:40 — Portfolio thinking: balancing approaches across climate action
32:21 — Output vs durability: designing for short-term volume or long-term resilience
34:37 — Investor time horizons vs climate timescales (why storage years help)
40:06 — Science in policy: how Susan’s work spans local to global decision-making
42:19 — Carbon insurance: what it can teach us about actuarial risk in forests
44:26 — What’s next: durability risk maps + Susan’s “magic wand” wishlist
47:44 — Final takeaway: the greatest risk is inaction
48:42 — One actionable advice for new forest investors
49:28 — Where to learn more (LinkedIn + nature.org) + closing remarks
50:12 — Outro: see you next time on Forest Invest
Founding Director and Host: Shauna Matkovich - The ForestLink
Producer and Editor: Magdalena Laas - Unscripted Creatives
Nature by MaxKoMusic/Soundcloud
Sopwell Woodlands and Scohaboy Bog SAC, Cloughjordan, Co Tipperary, IRELAND by wild_rumpus/Soundcloud
Ambient Documentary by Sound Guru (Pixabay)
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