This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow and deputy head of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, and Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s research director and head of the US programme. Together they discuss what the US midterm results mean for the war in Iran.
On November 3rd, American voters inflicted a spectacular drubbing on the Republican Party, with the Democrats winning control of Congress. The Democratic Party picked up Senate seats in usually safe red states such as Texas, South Carolina and Kansas, and will hold its largest House majority in nearly two decades.
Donald Trump was quick to distance himself from the outcome, claiming that the midterms were not a referendum on him or his policies. Vice-president J.D. Vance, by contrast, conceded that “the reason we lost is the war”, referring to the administration’s ongoing conflict with Iran. But Trump has said he would “do [the war] again” and is apparently considering a new round of escalation. Alarmingly, conservative political commentator Tucker Carlson also claimed that the president “may be within days of launching a nuclear strike.”
This week, Mark, Ellie and Jeremy discuss what the midterms mean for American politics and the war in Iran. What factors led to these results? What does the new political make-up of America mean for Trump’s war? And what is the current consensus on what Trump might do now?
This podcast episode was recorded on November 5th 2026.
Bookshelf:
Two tracks to Tehran: The new efforts to stop another US-Iran war, by Ellie Geranmayeh
Hold the obituaries: Trump is still the president, by Jeremy Shapiro
Biden’s Choice by Ben Rhodes
Athens and Sparta: The Rivalry that Shaped Ancient Greece, by Adrian Goldsworthy
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