U.S. holiday retail sales are projected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time in 2026, as consumers prepare for the November and December shopping season. The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts sales will reach $1.013 trillion, a 4.2% increase from 2025, accelerating from last year's 3.1% growth.
However, the outlook reveals an uneven consumer economy. Higher-income households are helping sustain spending, while lower-income families face pressure from rising food, fuel and other living costs. Retailers are preparing for a busy season, with the NRF expecting between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers to be hired.
A separate Deloitte survey estimates that average household holiday spending will rise 4% to $1,654. Gen Z and millennial consumers are expected to contribute significantly to the increase, with shoppers planning to spend more on physical gifts while remaining mindful of value and budgets. AI-powered shopping tools are also becoming a bigger part of how consumers discover products, compare prices and choose gifts.
Although the forecast points to record holiday spending, the headline figure does not mean every household is financially better off. Inflation, income differences and changing shopping habits will continue to shape the season.
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This podcast description is based on the National Retail Federation's official 2026 holiday sales forecast and Deloitte's 2026 Holiday Retail Survey, with additional reporting from Reuters and the Associated Press. Forecasts are estimates, not final sales results. We do not claim ownership of the original reporting or any third-party audio or footage. All rights remain with their respective owners. This content is shared for news and informational purposes and does not necessarily represent our views or endorsements.
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