2025 was set for private equity’s comeback after a 37% rise in buyout deals in 2024. Tariffs and policy shifts stalled optimism, leaving $3.2T in assets trapped as exit activity dropped 53%, pushing investors toward secondary markets, now 30% of all buyout portfolios.
🎯 WHAT YOU'LL LEARN: Sycamore’s $23B Walgreens strategy opportunity | Why smart money pivots to continuation vehicles & GP-led deals | Secondary markets as profit hubs | Fed rate decisions’ impact on investment timelines
📊 TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:26 Private Equity Liquidity Crisis
03:51 Secondary Markets Surge
05:51 Inflation Returns & Federal Reserve’s Dilemma
08:32 Strategic Outlook
📈 KEY DATA COVERED: → $3.2 trillion in unsold PE assets across 29k companies → Deal volume down 22%, value down 24% in Q2 → Only 12 secondary funds raised $38.8 billion while 215 still seek capital → June inflation hit 2.7% → Two Toma Bravo funds captured 20% of all capital raised
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📚 SOURCES & DEEP DIVES:
- Bain Private Equity 2025 Trends: https://www.bain.com/insights/topics/global-private-equity-report/
- Bain Midyear PE Report 2025: https://www.bain.com/insights/private-equity-midyear-report-2025/
- Bain PE Recovery Outlook 2025: https://www.bain.com/insights/outlook-is-a-recovery-starting-to-take-shape-global-private-equity-report-2025/
- PwC PE Deals Outlook: https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/financial-services/library/private-equity-deals-outlook.html
- PwC PE Trend Report 2025: https://www.pwc.dk/da/publikationer/2025/pwc-private-equity-trend-report-2025-final.pdf
- PitchBook Q2 2025 PE Data: https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q2-2025-global-pe-first-look
- S&P Global PE Secondaries Fundraising: https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/6/private-equity-secondaries-fundraising-struggles-to-keep-pace-with-demand-90991932
- CFR Inflation & Tariffs 2025: https://www.cfr.org/article/inflation-comes-home-roost-help-trumps-tariffs
- SF Fed Tariff Effects: https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2025/05/effects-of-tariffs-on-inflation-and-production-costs/
- CNBC June 2025 CPI Report: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/15/cpi-inflation-report-june-2025.html
- BLS Official CPI Releases: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
- USAFacts Inflation Data: https://usafacts.org/answers/what-is-the-current-inflation-rate/country/united-states/
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting: https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting
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