What was going to be a philosophical podcast largely about uncrewed systems has been completely upended by a major change to AUKUS Pillar One. The plan from the get go has been for the US to sell us two second hand Virginia class SSNs, followed by a brand new one. But overnight that's been changed - and on the fringes of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Defence Minister Richard Marles announced that the new one has been dropped and we will now be sold three second hand boats.
The government has gone into spin overdrive, claiming that this is a massive triumph of planning - but it's not. If it is such a brilliant idea, why not have made this the aim from the first day? The government has repeatedly insisted that there is a plan and that plan is being adhered to, no matter what. Well, that plan has been dropped and now we have a new plan. In all probability the explanation is even simpler - the US has changed its mind and is no longer prepared to sell us new submarines because their own needs come first.
In the medium term, under the previous plan Australia would also buy an additional 2 new Virginias if the British designed SSN AUKUS runs late - as it almost certainly will. What has happened to that plan? Does it still exist - or will Australia now only be permitted to buy more used SSNs, taking the total to five?
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