Donald Trump’s war with Iran is colliding with a growing political struggle at home. With the midterms approaching, the prospect of electoral defeat could increase the temptation to escalate abroad — even as Iran seeks to turn economic disruption and regional instability into leverage against Washington.
But Professor Robert Pape warns that the greatest danger may come after the votes are cast. He argues that the period between November’s elections and the seating of a new Congress could create a particularly volatile combination of military escalation, political violence and attempts to expand presidential power.
In this conversation, Pape explains how an initially successful American ground operation could become a prolonged military trap, why Iran could respond more aggressively to renewed attacks, and what reported threats against US diplomats could signal about the next phase of the conflict. He also examines the pressures on global oil supplies, whether a change of leadership in Israel could alter the trajectory towards war, and why the interaction between foreign conflict and domestic political turmoil poses such a serious test for American democracy.
Robert Pape is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and a leading scholar of air power, political violence and international security. He writes The Escalation Trap, examining the dynamics driving the conflict with Iran.
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