Ukraine has transformed Russia’s vast geography from a source of strategic depth into a growing vulnerability. Its long-range drones are striking oil refineries, supply lines and military infrastructure, while Crimea is becoming increasingly difficult for Moscow to defend and sustain.
But Sir Lawrence Freedman warns against assuming that Russia’s mounting failures have made Ukraine’s position easy. Ukrainian civilians face another punishing winter, ballistic missiles remain an acute threat, and Vladimir Putin continues to resist any settlement that could be interpreted as weakness.
In this conversation, Freedman explains why Putin has boxed himself in, whether Russia can find enough soldiers to sustain the war, how Ukraine remains ahead in the rapidly evolving drone contest, and why the next six months could prove decisive. He also examines the economic pressures building inside Russia, the amateurism of Washington’s negotiating effort, NATO’s struggle to catch up with Ukrainian innovation, and whether Putin will eventually be forced to confront the futility of his war.
Sir Lawrence Freedman is Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London and one of the world’s foremost authorities on strategy, conflict and military history.
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