Bitcoin has printed a golden cross and ETF demand remains strong, but Matt still considers the market sideways until Bitcoin either clears roughly $82,000 to $83,000 or loses $75,000. Oil approaching $100, the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.8%, uncertainty surrounding the Fed and questions about whether ETF demand has altered Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle all complicate the outlook. Meanwhile, Robinhood’s growing blockchain business and Metaplanet’s sharp decline demonstrate both sides of the leveraged exposure investors can get from Bitcoin-adjacent companies.
The regulatory and technology calendars are also converging. Matt looks at the upcoming CLARITY procedural vote and whether crypto political spending through groups such as Fairshake could influence senators in competitive races. Ethereum is also targeting post-quantum security by 2029, matching the timeframe in which IBM hopes to make major advances in fault-tolerant quantum computing. Matt argues that quantum risk is worth preparing for without pretending every crypto wallet is suddenly vulnerable, while the recent Cronos rollback raises a more immediate question about whether blockchains should ever reverse transactions after major exploits.
Happy HODLing
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