Craig’s view hasn’t changed, but the macro backdrop is starting to catch up to it. With rising geopolitical tension tied to President Trump’s latest deadlines and threats, alongside crude oil ripping higher, he’s expecting a highly volatile stretch across global markets. And in his framework, that matters directly for crypto. Bitcoin is still behaving like a liquidity-driven risk asset, not a hedge. If macro pressure builds, crypto likely moves lower with it.
From a structural standpoint, nothing has improved. Bitcoin remains in a clear weekly downtrend, printing lower highs and lower lows, and one green week doesn’t change that. Craig is still sitting in cash, actively hoping for lower prices so he can re-enter at better levels. The only thing that would shift his outlook is a clean break above roughly $76K, which would begin to challenge the current bearish structure. Until then, this is still a market leaning down.
Across the board, the message is the same. Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and most of the top ten are either trending lower or stuck in weak consolidation. A few outliers like Tron and Hyperliquid are holding up better, but they are exceptions, not the rule. In fact, Craig is seeing setups that point to potentially sharp downside moves, especially in charts that have already broken key levels and are setting up for continuation lower.
His approach reflects that environment. This isn’t a market for overtrading or chasing noise. It’s about waiting for high-quality setups, managing risk tightly, and taking advantage of clean trends when they appear. In bear conditions, opportunities still exist, but they are fewer, faster, and require discipline. The macro pressure is building, the charts are still weak, and until structure shifts, Craig’s bias remains firmly to the downside.
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