{"version":"1.0","type":"rich","provider_name":"Acast","provider_url":"https://acast.com","height":250,"width":700,"html":"<iframe src=\"https://embed.acast.com/$/633b3ddf2ce407001121c7e5/6adc9f3b02b9e3b25954fc54?\" frameBorder=\"0\" width=\"700\" height=\"250\"></iframe>","title":"The future has arrived. Hard and fast. Ungovernable France, oil back up, Putin's beatification.","description":"<h5><strong>Market shocks, AI anxiety, cyber risks, and a shaky European backdrop</strong></h5><p>This episode covers a fast-moving mix of markets, macroeconomics, and geopolitics. Chris and Jim move from oil and AI-driven equity volatility to cybersecurity scares, European weakness, UK consumer strain, and the growing pressure on France and the European car industry.The conversation is wide-ranging but tied together by one theme: the future is arriving faster than markets, governments, and businesses seem ready for.</p><h6><strong>Key topics</strong></h6><ul><li>In this episode, Chris opens with oil at $114 a barrel and argues the move may reflect supply-demand tightening, stock drawdown, or delayed effects from earlier war-related shocks.</li><li>They discuss the recent sell-off in AI-linked stocks and the simultaneous rally in US bonds, with lower Treasury yields driven by weak tech sentiment, extreme bearish bond positioning, and a search for safety.</li><li>Jim highlights Meta’s quarterly results and the market’s growing focus on capital expenditure, compute infrastructure, and return on investment rather than revenue growth alone.</li><li>The pair examine AI’s role in cybersecurity, including the discovery of major vulnerabilities and the alarming claim that 60% of British SMEs that suffer a successful cyberattack go out of business within six months.</li><li>They note how AI is being used both to find vulnerabilities and to patch them, raising questions about whether the industry is getting a free marketing boost from each new security scare.</li><li>Jim brings in inflation and PMI data from Japan and the euro area, showing that price pressure remains persistent while growth is slowing across the continent.</li><li>France becomes a major focus, with weak PMIs, a budget deficit around 5% of GDP, debt near 119% of GDP, and 10-year borrowing costs above 5%, prompting comparisons with Greece and Spain.</li><li>The discussion turns to UK consumers, with retail sales down 0.4% on the month and consumer confidence falling sharply, reinforcing the pressure heading into the next budget.</li><li>They cover the UK mortgage market recovery, with first-time buyers accounting for 57% of Q3 mortgage drawdowns, while also contrasting current activity with the far larger pre-crisis peak.</li><li>The European car market is framed as being under structural stress from Chinese competition, tariffs, raw material costs, and the EV transition, even as battery electric and hybrid sales continue to grow.</li><li>Chris and Jim also discuss US tourism weakness, concerns about travel under Trump, and the political and reputational damage this could do to inbound visitor numbers.</li><li>The episode closes on Ireland’s energy dependence on imported fossil fuels, planning resistance to renewables and data centres, and a furious condemnation of the Trump administration’s rhetoric on Putin.</li></ul>","author_name":"Jim Power & Chris Johns"}