Thursday 29th October 2026
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Phil Dobbie and NAB’s Ray Attrill unpack a frantic 24 hours of central bank decisions, domestic inflation data, and shifting rate calls. Global bond yields plunged—led by a sharp 8-basis-point drop in US two-year Treasury yields—after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a surprisingly dovish tone during his post-FOMC press conference, suggesting inflation medicine is taking effect and casting doubt on a December hike, whilst holding rates steady today. In Wellington, the RBNZ delivered a major shock by voting 4–3 to hold rates on hold rather than deliver a widely priced hike, sending the Kiwi dollar sliding 1%, while the Bank of Canada moved in the opposite direction with a 25-basis-point increase. Domestically, with Australian Q3 trimmed mean CPI printing at a sticky 1.0% quarter-on-quarter (4.3% year-on-year) alongside hawkish parliamentary testimony from Governor Michele Bullock, NAB has officially updated its forecast to call for an RBA rate hike on Melbourne Cup Day next week. Meanwhile, Brent crude edged back above US$115 a barrel amid ongoing Middle East tensions, French bond spreads continued to widen, and equity markets braced for high-stakes post-market earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft.
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