Upon independence, the current Scottish government's plan risks undermining the very purpose of independence: the ability to design institutions tailored to Scotland’s needs.
Assuming Scotland becomes independent within the next few years, it would likely take at least a decade before it could formally join the EU. Aligning institutions too readily with EU frameworks from the outset would mean forfeiting the flexibility to create institutions that serve Scotland’s best interests in the early years of independence. An independent Scotland requires fiscal flexibility, not self-imposed rules from a bloc it does not yet belong to.
The Scottish Government argues that independence will allow Scotland to “tailor policy to Scotland’s needs; build greater equality and wellbeing; and become more resilient” (Scottish Government 2022, p. 6). We fully agree—this is the fundamental case for independence. An independent Scotland has all of the necessary resources, skills, and institutional capacity to enable its citizens to prosper.
This paper, on which this presentation is based, demonstrates the value of rigorous, independent research into how economic choices, especially those made in the early years of independence, will influence Scotland’s long-term prosperity. We argue throughout the paper that, as part of the United Kingdom, Scotland’s economy is poorly served, but our principal concern is the current economic vision for independence as outlined by the Scottish government.
Presentation delivered at the 2025 Scottish Currency Group conference. As such, there were slides that I refer to. So please visit: https://scotonomics.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/SUMMARY-What-Our-Paper-Means-for-Scotlands-Economy.pdf to download the summary report which includes Scotland's Sectoral Balances.
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