This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Alan Boswell, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, to discuss the fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region and the risk of an all-out war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They examine federal forces’ recapture of Tigray’s capital Mekelle and what has changed since the previous war. They explore Eritrea’s calculations in backing its former enemy, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, and whether Ethiopian advances toward the Eritrean border could bring the two countries into direct conflict. They also discuss Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access and how it has further fuelled tensions with Eritrea. Turning to the wider region, they assess how Middle Eastern powers’ competing interests could shape their responses to a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the risk of such a conflict becoming entangled with wars in Sudan. Finally, they consider what an urgent diplomatic effort to prevent further escalation would require.
For more, check out our last episode Back to War in Ethiopia? our statement Arresting the Dangerous Descent Back into War in Northern Ethiopia and our Horn of Africa page
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