This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga about renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia. They examine why the Pretoria agreement, which ended the devastating 2020–2022 war between Tigrayan rebels and the federal government, failed to deliver lasting peace. They assess the fragile new alliance of Tigrayan, Amhara and other rebel groups, Eritrea’s alleged backing, and the threat it poses to the federal government. They also discuss how war-weary Tigrayans view the fighting and how the conflict could unfold. Finally, they explore the risk of direct war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, entanglement with Sudan’s conflict and wider regional rivalries, and whether diplomacy can halt the fighting and prevent a broader regional war.
For more check out our latest statement “Arresting the Dangerous Descent Back into War in Northern Ethiopia” and our Ethiopia page.
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