{"version":"1.0","type":"rich","provider_name":"Acast","provider_url":"https://acast.com","height":250,"width":700,"html":"<iframe src=\"https://embed.acast.com/$/5dd95a53de444bad79c0bda6/5dd95ab4f232b68a32bc9a71?\" frameBorder=\"0\" width=\"700\" height=\"250\"></iframe>","title":"One Election or Many?","thumbnail_width":200,"thumbnail_height":200,"thumbnail_url":"https://open-images.acast.com/shows/5dd95a53de444bad79c0bda6/377b391c8bbb6bd63ce43315dab9445c.jpg?height=200","description":"We have a first look at what's happening in the election campaign by asking whether it's really one election or many.&nbsp;Do national vote shares mean much any more, given all the regional variations?&nbsp;How is the Remain Alliance meant to work?&nbsp;Is this a Brexit election?&nbsp;And is 2015 or 2017 (or neither) a better guide to 2019?&nbsp;Plus we discuss the recent election in Spain and explore parallels between gridlock there and possible gridlock here.&nbsp;With Helen Thompson, Chris Bickerton and Mike Kenny.\n\n\nTalking Points:\n\n\nOne month out from the election, what do we know?&nbsp;\n - Why do commentators still rely on polls and betting markets?&nbsp;\n - What is the appropriate unit of analysis for this election? Is it regional? National?&nbsp;\n - The rural/urban divide seems to cut across the regional effects.&nbsp;\n - But tactical voting pulls things down to a more granular level: you have to look at particular seats.\n\n\nMany people thought this would be a Brexit election, but it doesn’t really look like that.\n - The big theme seems to be spending.&nbsp;\n - The anti-Corbyn factor also complicates things. Corbyn has generated both a new base, and a backlash.&nbsp;\n - The Lib-Dems tried to capitalize on this. But they’ve backed down on their anti-Corbyn stance in favour of the Remain alliance.\n - If you look at polling on the fundamentals, Johnson is outstripping Corbyn.\n - Conservative remainers say they won’t vote for Labour.\n\n\nWill this election be more like 2015 than 2017?\n - Wider forces might overcome local variation.&nbsp;\n - Lib-Dem voters in the Southwest are generally closer to the Conservatives than Labour.&nbsp;\n - The SNP are now proactively in favour of a referendum, and Labour has essentially pulled out of the Unionist position. Who will speak for the Scottish unionists?\n\n\nThere’s little scrutiny of Johnson’s deal.\n - Farage won’t be fighting Johnson on this point. And Labour doesn’t want the election to be just about Brexit.&nbsp;\n\n\nIn Spain, instead of breaking the deadlock, voters entrenched it. Could this happen in the UK?\n - Catalonian independence also hardened far-right support.&nbsp;\n - Could Scotland drive English nationalism or increase support for far right parties?\n\n\nMentioned in this Episode:&nbsp;\n - Betting odds for the next UK general election\n\n\nFurther Learning:&nbsp;\n - Mike’s new Bennett institute report on townscapes in Scotland\n - More on the Spanish election\n\n\nAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking  For information regarding your data privacy, visit <a href=\"https://www.acast.com/privacy\">acast.com/privacy</a>","author_name":"David Runciman and Catherine Carr"}