The conflict may be over, but the shockwaves of the Iran war are still spreading. The United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states endured Iranian drone and missile strikes; Iran withstood weeks of bombardment from the U.S. and Israel, which have perhaps the world’s two strongest air forces; and leaders across the region have been left wondering if they can rely on the U.S. for security. Gulf countries face a choice between uniting against Iran or accommodating the increasingly IRGC-dominated regime in postwar Tehran. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu fears that President Trump will blame Israel for the war’s shortcomings and constrain Israel’s ability to act against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Meanwhile, the Lebanese government will struggle to resist Iran and Hezbollah’s efforts to sideline Beirut and scuttle its peace talks with Israel. Host David Makovsky sits down with former top U.S. Middle East diplomat Barbara Leaf and former National Security Council official Kirsten Fontenrose to understand the regional fallout of the war.
Kirsten Fontenrose served in 2018 as senior director for the Gulf at the National Security Council and is now a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Ambassador Barbara Leaf served from 2022-25 as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, from 2014-18 as U.S. ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, and from 2013-14 as deputy assistant secretary of state for the Arabian Peninsula. She is now senior international policy advisor at the law firm Arnold & Porter.
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