Today, John, Les, and Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, co-lead of the Air and Missile Defense Program and Senior Director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, take stock of where the U.S.-Iran conflict stands after weeks of strikes, counterstrikes, and an ambiguous MOU that collapsed into a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz. Over forty days of military action, Iran has lost its navy, air force, air defense systems, and significant missile production capacity — yet the fight has shifted to a grinding contest for the Strait, where U.S. forces are sustaining a blockade and an escort operation while Iranian strikes on regional shipping and Arab infrastructure continue. The toll on American readiness is mounting, from degraded munitions stockpiles to a fleet that could be in extremis for a potential Pacific contingency by 2028 or 2029.
How much longer can the U.S. Navy realistically sustain its current force posture in the region before readiness damage becomes irreversible? What would a deliberate military escalation target at this stage — and can the U.S. defend regional energy and water infrastructure that has proven difficult to protect? Is the economic constriction strategy enough to bring Iran to terms, or is a harder confrontation inevitable?
Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.
@lestermunson
@johnclipsey
@markcmontgomery
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