Today, John, Les, and Special Guest Peter Harrell—former Senior Director for International Economics at the NEC & NSC—trace the arc of U.S. trade and economic policy toward China from the engagement era of the late 1990s through future administrations. For decades, Washington operated on the theory that integrating China into the global economy through the WTO would create market opportunities and encourage political liberalization — a paradigm that persisted through Clinton, Bush, and Obama even as warning signs accumulated. The shift came gradually, driven by Chinese malign tactics, Xi Jinping's consolidation of power, and a business community that eventually saw more risk than opportunity in the relationship.
What tools — tariffs, export controls, industrial policy — have actually moved the needle on economic security, and which are more political theater than strategy? Did Trump's first-term tariffs reshape trade flows in any meaningful way, or did transshipment through states such as Vietnam and Mexico simply obscure continued Chinese dominance? How should policymakers think about the trade deficit as a strategic variable, and what would it actually take to address it?
Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.
@lestermunson
@johnclipsey
@petereharrell
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