In this live recording of The State of It, Patrick and Steve assess the state of play ahead of budget day.
John Healey is preparing a steady-as-she-goes budget, but with the big decisions on welfare, defence and tax rises pushed into next year, is Labour ducking the difficult choices?
Meanwhile, AI evangelists want Britain to seize the opportunities, while Ed Miliband is pushing back on environmental grounds. Cue an almighty cabinet row.
Reform UK’s poll lead has narrowed as Restore eats into its support. But is Westminster writing off Nigel Farage too soon? Reform remains the most trusted party on immigration and is sharpening its economic pitch to working-class voters.
Finally, Andy Burnham faces one of Labour’s biggest challenges: reforming the welfare system.
Recorded in Westminster as part of The Battle of Ideas festival.
Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times
Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson
Executive producer: Molly Guinness
Picture: Getty Images
00:00 - "The bond vigilantes are ready to split our throats"
00:09 - Inside Healey’s budget: Bank taxes & disappearing headroom
02:04 - "He’s a dud": Cabinet backbiting over the Chancellor
04:34 - The budget trap: Delaying big tax rises until next year
07:02 - Courting the squeezed middle: Business rates vs Reform UK
08:53 - Shock YouGov polling: Only 3% expect to be better off
11:24 - Is Reform UK finished, or are the pundits wrong?
15:45 - The bizarre reason Number 10 secretly wants a Tory comeback
18:12 - Cabinet AI civil war: Silicon Valley vs British jobs
22:30 - The UK grid crisis: Can we even power AI data centres?
24:51 - The Milburn Review: Plans to ban benefits for under-25s
29:19 - Broken PIP system: Backdated lump sums and 18-year assessment delays
32:15 - Can Labour ever shake the "welfare party" label?
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