Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Political technology, or the professional engineering of politics, has been endemic to Russia since the Soviet era. But these practices have now spread across the globe – with manipulation occurring in China, European countries, India, the United States, and many others. And the political engineering industry goes well beyond mere online disinformation. From data mining to astroturfing and propaganda apps, a global market is emerging for the whole gamut of manipulation techniques. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Andrew Wilson, senior policy fellow at ECFR and professor of Ukrainian studies at University College London, to discuss political technology and the globalisation of political manipulation. Where did the term political technology originate? How does it spread? And what can democracies do to defend themselves? This episode was recorded on 21 May 2024 Bookshelf Political Technology: The Globalisation of Political Manipulation, by Andrew Wilson How to Steal a Presidential Election, by Lawrence Lessig and Matthew Seligman 

A key priority for both the European Union and the United States is to reduce dependencies on China in green industries. Only this week, the United States announced a ramping up of tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, solar panels, steel, and other goods. However, with China’s dominant position in the production of green technologies, European policymakers are facing difficult decisions when it comes to de-risking. Again and again, national security and domestic economic considerations have to be weighed against the effects of climate change.  In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Robbie Diamond, founder and CEO of SAFE, and of its European Initiative for Energy Security (EIES), and Janka Oertel, director of ECFR’s Asia programme and co-author of ECFR’s upcoming policy brief on de-risking, to discuss de-risking and the future of Europe’s green industries. How should the EU tackle the issue of dependency on China? Is it possible to find a sweet spot between successful de-risking and not slowing down the green transition? And how is the US response different from the EU’s? This episode was recorded on 15 May 2024 

When Europe’s single market was first conceived in the 1980s, the number of member states was half of what it is today, the Soviet Union still existed, Germany was not yet reunified, and the Chinese and Indian economies comprised less than 5 per cent of the global economy. Now, the European Union’s economic, political, and demographic landscape is almost unrecognisable. While the single market continues to be a cornerstone of European integration, it urgently needs strengthening to adapt to this changing global order.In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes former Italian prime minister and ECFR council member Enrico Letta to discuss his report examining the European single market’s future. Why is the single market so important? How can it be improved to meet today’s geopolitical challenges? And what are the dangers if the EU doesn’t adapt?This podcast was recorded on 26 April 2024.BookshelfSalviamo l’Europa: Otto parole per riscrivere il futuro by Michele BelliniL’Europe enfla si bien qu’elle creva: De 27 à 36 États? by Sylvie Goulard

Taiwan has come to represent a strategic flashpoint in US-China relations. As Beijing ramps up its political and military pressure on Taipei, any escalation could trigger a major conflict between the two powers. Unlike Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China may have to reckon with direct US intervention if it chose to invade Taiwan. Alongside this, the US-China strategic competition is rising, with the United States’ strategic approach involving aggressive export controls, maintaining tariffs, and creation of alliances in the Indo-Pacific.In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder and chairman of national security think-tank Silverado Policy Accelerator, to discuss US-China competition and the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. What would the consequences of an invasion be? What can the US do about it? And what role should Europeans play in all of this?This episode was recorded on 25 April 2024Bookshelf:To Run the World: The Kremlin's Cold War Bid for Global Power by Sergey Radchenko

As the world awaits Israel’s response to Iran’s Saturday attack, the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza persists and the territory remains on the brink of famine. While Israel’s attention is momentarily diverted towards Iran and its proxies, prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu insists he is still planning an offensive on Rafah, discussions around a ceasefire and hostage exchange remain in deadlock, and a possible two state-solution recedes further into the distance.  In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellow Hugh Lovatt and chief of programmes and communications at the Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor, Muhammad Shehada from Gaza, to discuss the war in Gaza and the prospects for Palestinian statehood. What pathways for a solution to the conflict remain? Should the emphasis continue to be on Palestinian statehood, or on self-determination in a broader sense? Can Europeans play a constructive role in finding a peaceful solution? This episode was recorded on 17 April 2024  Bookshelf: Crossing the Divide: Intergroup Leadership in a World of Difference by Todd Pittinsky The Bank Manager and the Holy Grail: Travels to the Weirder Reaches of Wales by Byron Rogers  

On Saturday evening, Iran launched a major attack on Israeli territory, with a combination of 300 drones and missiles. Israel’s air defense seems to have intercepted most of these and the airspace over Israel and Jordan has since been reopened. In this special episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, and Hamidreza Azizi, visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin, where he focuses on Iranian foreign policy and regional issues. But the attack remains historically unprecedented and leaves the Middle East sliding to the edge of a regional war. What motivated Iran to attack? How will Israel respond? And what role is the us playing? The podcast was recorded on 14 April 2024

Amid growing geopolitical fragmentation and the rise of middle powers, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia stand out for their successful attempts to reinvent themselves as regional linchpins. Despite having to operate within an increasingly difficult economic environment, the Gulf states have simultaneously expanded their ties with China, Europa, Russia, and the United States and reaped remarkable economic rewards in the process. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellow Agathe Demarais, visiting fellow Cinzia Bianco, and policy fellow and Deputy Head of ECFR’s Paris office, Camille Lons, to discuss the geoeconomics of the Gulf. How have the UAE and Saudi Arabia managed to juggle different competing powers? What lessons do their strategies hold for other middle powers? And what should the European Union be doing to pursue its own interests in the region? This episode was recorded on 11 April 2024 Bookshelf: 3 Body Problem – a Netflix TV Series by David Benioff, Daniel Weiss, and Alexander Woo Blind Man’s Bluff: The Untold Story of American Submarine Espionage by Sherry Sontag and Christopher Drew, with Annette Lawrence Drew The Power of Currencies and Currencies of Power by Alan Wheatley There’s Still Tomorrow – a film by Paolo Cortellesi 

With the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the war in Gaza, US president Joe Biden has been forced to deal  with some major foreign policy crises. Guiding him through these, a team of seasoned foreign policy professionals, among which Antony Blinken, Bill Burns, Avril Haines, and Jake Sullivan, were brought on to “restore” America’s foreign policy after four years of Donald Trump’s presidency. In this week’s episode, following the launch of ECFR’s Washington office, Mark Leonard welcomes national security reporter at Politico, Alexander Ward, and research director and director of ECFR’s new US programme, Jeremy Shapiro, to discuss Biden’s foreign policy performance. Has it been a success? Where has it fallen short of the goals Biden set? And has his team of foreign policy experts lived up to the promise of restoring America’s foreign policy? This episode was recorded on 27 March 2024 Bookshelf:  The Internationalists: The Fight to Restore American Foreign Policy after Trump by Alexander Ward 20 Days in Mariupol - an AP News and Frontline documentary film by Mstyslav Chernov  Collisions: The Origins of the War in Ukraine and the New Global Instability by Michael Kimmage