Share

cover art for How pivotal has Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) been in the Ukraine War?

The Global Gambit

How pivotal has Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) been in the Ukraine War?

Season 1, Ep. 24

TGG has a Substack!

In Dec, l started a Substack where l share reflections on interviews, produce explainers to emerging events, and write opinion pieces.

Subscribe here: https://substack.com/profile/112732172-pyotr-s-kurzin?utm_source=user-menu.

Episode Outline

In the fall of 2022, l held a panel on the unprecedented role Open-Source-Intelligence (OSINT) has had on the Ukraine War. It is has hard to believe what the state of the conflict would be without social media communities that have emerged over time. Therefore, it is also hard to overstate how influential it has been in changing fortunes on across Ukraine. Yet, they have been surprisingly underrepresented in the media, despite, referenced by outlets, and often being quicker to provide updates than the mainstream media.

OSINT focuses on legally gathering information from free tools or resources, usually public sources about an individual or organization. In practice, that tends to mean information found on the internet, with examples being geolocation, satellite imagery or documentation. I spoke with 3 accounts on Twitter, who were some of the first to begin tracking and sharing details about developments in the Ukraine War.

Guest Profile

Spook: Began their account in November 2021 to follow the Russian build up on Ukraine's border and began posting various updates, especially concerning graphic content.

The Intel Hub: Despite already a full-time analyst, this account began focused on the war looking at imagery, footage, and materials, focusing on OSINT, aggregation and analysis.

OSINTdefender: Acted as a OSINT monitor with an emphasis on Eastern Europe and increasingly the Central Asian / Eurasian regions. Holds a background in geospatial analysis.

You can access additional, unpublished content/questions from this  interview, by visiting Patreon and pledging as little as $2 a month!

Support the show

Considering Chipping in to Global Gambit (GG)

This isn't possible without you - the listener. My goal is to bring entertaining yet enlightening content to you, make complex, technical issues more relatable to you, and enable you to engage on topics you care about and for better people from all origins or professions.

So, if any of those resonate with you, consider chipping to the GG, as allows me to improve its quality and elevate the experience for you.

And if you're unable able to do that - no worries. Please leave a review, or share GG. This small action has BIG impact in helping it grow and broaden its visibility to more audiences.

Links

More episodes

View all episodes

  • 41. What the Russia Ukraine War Has Done to Human Rights, War Crimes & Law of Armed Conflict

    32:36
    Thanks to all who support my work on Patreon - you make this possible If you'd like bonus content, your own questions put to guests, and appreciate my efforts to bring diverse, nuanced conversations consider joining as a patron too or buying me a one-off coffee.Due to being MIA for so long - here is another episode! Normal service of the show will resume hereon-out, with 2 episodes a month. If you want more, subscribe to the YouTube. The Russia-Ukraine War is the most documented conflict in history. One of the darkest, toughest parts is recording evidence to expose Putin's war crimes and hold this war in line to international humanitarian law (law of armed conflict). A pioneer in this is Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Ukrainian human rights lawyer, head of the Center for Civil Liberties and a 2022 Nobel Laureate.We cover the importance of the US aid package to Ukraine, Oleksandra touring America and rallying Congress for support, her work documenting Russian war crimes, why the Russia Ukraine War is threatening human rights international humanitarian law (law of armed conflict) and much more.
  • 40. Have the Iran-Israel Clashes put the Middle East in a New Permacrisis?

    34:49
    Israel and Iran’s clashes over April 2024 has left the Middle East in state of permacrisis. While immediate threat of war escalation seems to have subsided, the long term geopolitical implications are unprecedented. Many consider this to be a new reality for the region and how we interpret developments.To explain why, Bilal Saab - professor at Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service & Dr Sanam Vakil - Director of Chatham House’s MENA programme, joined me for this extraordinarily timely conversation.Follow the show for updates and content:X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzinYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/Support the ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit
  • 39. Are the Houthis in Yemen permanently reshaping global commercial shipping?

    50:48
    Since Oct 7th the world has been rocked by the Israel-Hamas War. That has caused a series if escalations, including the ongoing Houthi disruptions to maritime security and global commercial shipping.Its so severe, the US and UK have initiated airstrikes in Yemen, but has made little difference and if anything only emboldens the Houthis more and who say they wont stop until Israel ceases its operations in Gaza. However, the long-term of these events on shipping are unprecedented, and not merely about the Houthis actions, but those of the ship insurers, explains Sal Dr. Salvatore Mercogliano - Chair of the Department of History, Criminal Justice and Politics at Campbell University. And the ramifications really are redefining global economic processes as well as geopolitical tensions. Follow for the LIVE ShowsX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzinYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/Support the ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitPlease drop a like and share around - it REALLY supports independent shows like GG and only takes a few clicks!
  • 38. South Asia: A region in Good or Bad Condition?

    51:02
    South Asia - or the Indian subcontinent to others - is going through a concentrated set of shifts. Three of the main players - Bangladesh, Pakistan and India, all have major elections next year with each proposing potentially different directions - but which? Returning guest, Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Program at the Wilson Centre sat down with me to outline, the challenges and details of these 3 countries on the geopolitical landscape. And while they all share elections, the reasons for, and potential consequences from, vary significantly, in a globe already highly unpredictable. Follow for LIVE ShowsX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzinYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/Support the ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitPlease drop a like and share - it REALLY supports independent shows like GG and only takes a few clicks!
  • 37. Can the UN's COP28 deliver on Climate Change?

    22:30
    The United Nations Climate Change Conference - known to most as COP - and in this case, COP28, is the highest-level of international engagement and gathering to find collective solutions to the globe's greatest collective challenge. Yet, COPs have poor reputations, with little tangible products or outcomes occurring - other than an agreement of inaction. But, as l spoke to Nazanine Moshiri - senior analyst at the International Crisis Group and attending COP28, this years began with an uplifting start - implementation of the loss and damage fund. But that's just the start, and as Nazanine made clear, there is real need to include one specific aspect: climate-conflict and security challenges. Follow for the LIVE ShowsX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzinYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/Support the ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitPlease drop a like and share around - it REALLY supports independent shows like GG and only takes a few clicks!
  • 36. Is the BRICS bloc Overhyped or Underestimated?

    30:34
    2023 was a big year for multinational, multi-forum events, ranging from the G20 to BRICS to the annual UN General Assembly. But of these, the concept and symbolism of BRICS is often the one that captures the minds of people, especially those who tend to have anti-Western sentiments and desire for a multipolar order. But why this fascination, arguably infatuation for the BRICS? Is it purely about it removing the US hegemony or something else? What of the expansion consisting of 6 new members? My guest Ali Wyne, senior analyst in Global Macro at Eurasia Group, joined me for an in-depth conversation and exchange of ideas in this thoroughly enlightening yet entertaining episode. Follow for Live ShowsX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzinYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/Support the ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitPlease drop a like and share around - it REALLY supports independent shows like GG and only takes a few clicks!
  • 35. What is Israel's long-term military objective in Gaza?

    58:01
    Since the Oct 7th, the world has been rocked by events that many have always agonised and speculated - escalation and war between Israel and Gaza, specifically Hamas. From there, we have witnessed continued intensification, with a growing fear over the possibility of a regional war.Much of this rests on the near-inevitable ground operation the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) will undertake - the severer, harsher their approach, the more it might trigger a response from others, namely Hezbollah, because of a need to protect, defend, and similar motivations to their brethren. But what could that look like? What form of operations, what broader strategic objectives? And what about the relevance of external forces, such as US input, Iranian support and more?Guests, Bryan Cunningham - former CIA analyst, and Patrick Fox, USAF Veteran, broke down some of the details from their experiences on this highly sensitive, hugely complex matter. Indeed, this podcast isnt attempting to cover all aspects and historical context, merely provide some takes to better make sense of the situation.Follow for Live ShowsX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzinYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/Support the ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitPlease drop a like and share around - it REALLY supports independent shows like GG and only takes a few clicks!
  • 34. Can the UK Salvage Brexit or is 'Bregret' Permanent?

    37:38
    ContextSince June 24th 2016, the UK has had its entire economy, society and political environment largely defined by a singular issue - Brexit. The word itself, before diving into anything at all, is a source of contention. Yet, very little to many, including myself, has changed. Certainly not in terms of improvements. Merely a country that is suffering an identity crisis as much as it is political turmoil, economic stagnation and social polarisation. However, it doesnt necessarily need to stay that way, and are there still ways to make the most of it? Can we realise 'buccaneering Britain'? Or will be remain at risk of 'boiling the frog' - both these analogies and more are outlined by Peter Foster, Public Policy Editor at the Financial Times in this episode and his new book. Peter's Book - What Went Wrong With Brexit And What We Can Do About ItFollow for Live ShowsX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzinYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/Support the ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitPlease drop a like and share around - it REALLY supports independent shows like GG and only takes a few clicks!
  • 33. How bad is the Niger Coup & Could it lead to Regional War?

    48:01
    In late-July 2023, the country of Niger - a critical Western ally in Africa, and against the threats of Islamic Jihadism, experienced its 7th coup since WWII. The democratically elected President Bazoum was ousted, and there have been many claiming the role of Wagner/Russia or that this is positive for greater independence, autonomy from former colonial masters, France.But its not that clear cut, and Vanda Felbab-Brown of Brookings Institute, emphasises that while there is some support for Russia, its definitely not that high; while the hatred of ECOWAS, the regional body that could lead a military intervention to reinstate Bazoum is not as high either. Support the ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitPlease drop a like and share around - it REALLY supports independent shows like GG and only takes a few clicks!