NAB Morning Call

Thursday 18th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA concise and hawkish Federal Reserve decision has shifted global desks. Phil unpacks Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting with NAB’s Gavin Friend. It delivered an unyielding 12-0 vote to hold rates steady alongside a razor-thin official statement that raised inflation forecasts and explicitly prioritised price stability. This refusal to offer traditional forward guidance pushed bond yields higher and sparked choppy swings across the Nasdaq, all while a surprise 0.9% surge in U.S. retail sales proved the American consumer is out shopping. Meanwhile the UK awaits employment data and a high-stakes by-election. Then there’s that MoU with the signing-ceremony a day away.

Wednesday 17th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA unanimous, universally expected pause by the RBA yesterday, with Michelle Bullock refusing to rule out future interest rate hikes if inflation remains sticky. Taylor Nugent says NAB's view remains firm that the data flow won't give them the final push needed to squeeze out another increase. Inflationary pressures globally could be about to ease as crude oil prices collapse below $80 a barrel as optimism solidifies around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Bank of Japan hoisted its benchmark rate to 1% in an attempt to salvage a battered yen, while over in Washington, the Federal Reserve prepares for Kevin Warsh's debut meeting as chair, where he is widely expected to forego his anticipated dovish approach, faced with the inflationary pressures.  

Tuesday 16th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s been a sharp market response to the apparent agreed memorandum of understanding, electronically signed by Iran and the US, with a formal signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to look at the market response, with yields falling, equities rising, the Aussie dollar gaining ground and oil prices plummeting. It’s the closest we’ve been to a deal yet, but it doesn’t resolve any of the underlying issues, of course, and ships having started passing through the Strait in any great number just yet. It’s also the start of a flood of central bank meetings, starting with the RBA (likely on hold) and the BoJ (expected to raise rate). Plus a chunk of activity data for China released today.

Monday 15th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to discuss a week where markets are responding to the shifting realities of a proposed U.S.-Iran peace deal. Deep optimism over a potential memorandum of understanding opening the Strait of Hormuz toll-free pushed Brent crude down to $87.30 a barrel and led to sharp gains across European equities. Looking ahead to a massive week of central bank decisions—including the Fed, Bank of England, and a highly anticipated Bank of Japan hike—the focus turns to the RBA's upcoming statement. Sally expects the board to maintain its steady path while striking a balanced tone; the RBA will likely acknowledge cooling domestic activity via soft housing metrics and dropping capacity utilization rates, yet remain anxious over sticky inflation pipelines, leaving the truly consequential policy and forecast revisions till their August meeting.

Friday 12th June 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Japan finds itself performing a high-stakes economic balancing act as the nation navigates its most aggressive structural pivot in decades. In this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie welcomes Tokyo-based independent macro strategist Tetsuo "Harry" Ishihara to unpack how Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's administration is fiercely driving growth via an interventionist, multi-year fiscal strategy—employing heavy gas subsidies and targeted funding across 17 growth sectors to absorb the massive shock of the Middle East energy crisis. Yet, this state-sponsored growth push directly collides with the Bank of Japan's urgent agenda. With the yen weakening back past the precarious 160-per-dollar mark, the central bank is looking clean through artificial headline numbers to an "ex-institutional" inflation metric that is creeping toward 3%. Can the government maintain its growth-at-all-costs mandate while the BOJ prepares to bite the bullet with a historic interest rate hike to 1% next week to defend the currency and tame import costs? Tune in to discover how Tokyo plans to pull off this delicate macroeconomic manoeuvre without bringing the entire apparatus crashing down.

Friday 12th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA major coordinated market reversal took place overnight as Donald Trump posted a dramatic Truth Social message stating that a comprehensive US-Iran peace deal is "just about done," prompting an immediate unwind of trades built on escalating tensions. NAB's Ray Attrill joins Phil to dissect this massive shift, which saw Brent crude plunge back below $90 a barrel, US Treasury yields drop 9 basis points, and the Nasdaq snap back into a roaring 3.5% rally. Yet Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency swiftly downplayed the announcement, stating no text has been formally approved. Beyond the Gulf,: the European Central Bank delivering its first interest rate hike since 2023 to combat broad-based inflation pressures, and today sees the historic debut of the largest initial public offering (IPO) in global history, dwarfing Saudi Aramco with a mind-boggling valuation. 

Thursday 11th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices are higher again as the US and Iran tit for tat measures pick up a pace, with more rhetoric from the US President. The question global banks are asking, is how are rising oil prices impacting core inflation? The Fed seems is expected to wait, even with headline inflation at 4.2%. The ECB, though, is concerned about the second-round effects of oil price rises and is likely to raise rates tonight. China, meanwhile, reported lower consumer inflation but rising producer prices. NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to talk through the numbers.

Wednesday 10th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere hasn't been a strong market reaction to the downing of a US helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, even though Donald Trump has talked retaliation. Instead, markets seem to have focused more on the fact that some oil tankers have successfully made their way through and that Kuwait has been actively selling oil to refineries. Meanwhile NAB has revised its expectations for the RBA and doesn't see any rate hikes this year with the next move likely to be down. NAB’s Ken Crompton takes us through the reasoning, including the latest data from the NAB business survey yesterday and the consumer sentiment read. Today the focus is going to be on US and China inflation numbers.

Friday 5th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA blowout U.S. non-farm payrolls report has injected definitive hawk-ish certainty into central bank paths, while a hyper-volatile tit-for-tat missile exchange between Israel and Iran leaves the outlook for the Gulf structurally unsettled. Phil and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril work through the geopolitical and data crosscurrents, noting that while global oil prices spiked past $98 a barrel during the weekend combat before settling back to $94, prediction markets continue to aggressively push back the timeline for a lasting regional truce. This unresolved energy shock contrasts sharply with a block of robust North American labour metrics—led by a 172,000 U.S. hiring beat in May and an 88,000 full-time employment surge in Canada—which triggered a massive bear flattening across core treasury yield curves. Wall Street managed a partial recovery from its brutal tech sell-off, yet broader equity configurations show distinct vulnerability as a highly anticipated, multi-billion-dollar SpaceX flotation triggers significant liquidity churn. At home the focus pivots to a critical testing day for local momentum with the simultaneous drop of the NAB Business Survey and the Westpac Consumer Confidence index, which will offer fresh visibility on whether worsening price pressures, margin squeezes, and post-budget sentiment are altering the structural direction of the Australian economy.