The Horn

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on what a second Trump administration means for U.S.-Africa policy from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga to discuss the implications of a second Trump administration for Africa. They examine how African leaders have reacted to Donald Trump’s election victory and why some might favour a more transactional Washington. They assess the Biden administration’s legacy in Africa, the shifts a second Trump administration might bring and the possible plans of outside powers jockeying on the continent for influencing Washington. They look at what Trump’s presidency could mean for hotspots in Africa, including Somalia, Sudan, the DR Congo and the Sahel, as well as the future of UN peacekeeping missions on the continent. Finally, they discuss the risk that some African states may fragment, asking whether stronger, more unified leadership might help the continent navigate the volatile world order. For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Africa program page. 

In this episode of The Horn, guest host Murithi Mutiga is joined by Hanna Tetteh, former UN Under-Secretary-General and Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa. They discuss the challenges of peacemaking in Africa amid regional conflicts and a shifting global order. They talk about the state of the African Union and how it can become more effective in resolving conflicts across the continent. They discuss why mediation efforts have yielded little success in Sudan and ways to strengthen diplomatic initiatives to end the conflict. They discuss ECOWAS as a model for regional integration and how the West African bloc can preserve unity amid recent tensions with Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali. They touch on the implications of a second Trump presidency on UN funding and U.S.-Africa policy. They also reflect on Ghana’s successful transition from military rule to a stable democracy. This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Hold Your Fire! podcast episode Trump in Africa, and our Africa program page.

In this episode of The Horn, guest host Nazanine Moshiri leads a roundtable discussion with researcher and journalist Peter Schwartzstein and Karabo Mokgonyana, renewable energy campaigner at Power Shift Africa, to talk about what’s at stake for Africa at the COP29 climate summit in Baku. They discuss how a heavy debt burden has limited climate action in many African countries and the case for bringing debt relief to the table at COP. They unpack how climate change can fuel drivers of conflict and why donor countries should prioritise climate financing in conflict-afflicted countries. They also discuss how African leaders can build a united front to raise issues like climate security and climate financing at COP29 and beyond.For more, check out Peter’s book The Heat and the Fury: On the Frontlines of Climate Violence, Karobo’s article Without debt relief, Africa is fighting climate change with its hands tied and our Climate, Environment and Conflict page.

In this episode of The Horn, guest host Elissa Jobson is joined by BBC journalist Mohanad Hashim, to talk about his recent trip to Omdurman and other war-torn cities in Sudan, and the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe in the country as the war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces rages on. They discuss life in the country’s urban areas amid daily bombardments, food shortages, and atrocities reportedly committed by both warring parties. They unpack why international media coverage of the war in Sudan has been limited despite the conflict’s devastating humanitarian toll. They talk about how people living in Sudan perceive the warring parties and their hopes for the country’s political future. They also examine the lacklustre international response to the conflict, the involvement of external actors in the war and how that affects prospects for peace.For more, you can watch Mohanad’s recent BBC mini-documentary ‘They ransacked my home and left my town in ruins’, our latest Crisis Watch entry, and our Sudan country page.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Hannah Ryder, CEO of Development Reimagined, to discuss how debt and the high cost of debt servicing are affecting economies in Africa. They unpack the history of African debt, the increased role of private lenders and non-Western countries like China on the continent in recent years and how this diversification of creditors might complicate future debt relief efforts. They examine how reforms of the global financial system along with more coordination among African countries could reduce the debt burden and improve their access to financing. They also assess what options African leaders have to tackle the challenges posed by high debt and debt servicing absent larger structural changes to the global financial system. This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.For more you can read Hannah’s Foreign Policy piece African Lending Needs a Better World Bank, her opinion article in African Business Why are some creditors more preferred than others? and our Africa regional page.

In the first episode of The Horn’s new season, Alan is joined by Crisis Group’s senior Eastern Africa analyst Omar Mahmood to discuss the escalating regional tensions involving Somalia, Egypt and Ethiopia, the uncertain future of the stabilisation mission ATMIS, which supports Mogadishu in its fight against Al-Shabaab and the presence of the Islamic State in Somalia. They unpack the worsening relations between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa over Ethiopia’s bid for sea access through Somaliland and the diplomatic efforts under way to defuse the tensions. They discuss Somalia’s new defence pact with Egypt and its regional implications. They talk about a possible follow-on mission to ATMIS, which is set to end by December this year, Ethiopia’s military presence in Somalia and Egypt’s increasing security assistance to the country amid regional rivalries. They also discuss the growing significance of the Somali branch of the Islamic State for the group’s global operations, recent developments in Mogadishu’s fight against Al-Shabaab and whether more diplomacy could help to improve relations between Somalia and its neighbours. For more on the topics discussed in this episode check out our recent briefing, The Islamic State in Somalia: Responding to an Evolving Threat and our Somalia country page.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks with writer and political analyst Nanjala Nyabola about the wave of nationwide protests that have swept through Kenya in recent weeks and prospects for the country and the region. They unpack the political and economic factors driving discontent among young people in Kenya, the makeup of the demonstrators and social media’s role in galvanising the protests. They discuss what options Kenya’s President William Ruto has to address the country’s economic woes and its spiralling debt crisis. They also talk about whether demonstrations might spread to other African countries facing structural challenges similar to Kenya’s and what lessons can be learned from how protest movements have played out in Sudan and elsewhere in the region.For more, check out Nanjala’s article in The Guardian The world is scrambling to understand Kenya’s historic protests – this is what too many are missing, her book Digital Democracy, Analogue Politics: How the Internet Era is Transforming Politics in Kenya and our recent Q&A What is Behind Kenya’s Protest Movement?

In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks with Alex de Waal, a leading scholar on famines as well as on Sudan and the executive director of the World Peace Foundation, to talk about the worsening humanitarian catastrophe in Sudan as the war between Sudan's Armed Forces and the paramilitary RSF is driving millions to starvation. They assess the scale of the hunger crisis in Sudan and how close the country is to full-blown famine. They talk about the factors driving starvation in the country and how the belligerents are using hunger as a weapon of war. They also discuss how aid access throughout the country can be restored, whether outside actors, including the U.S. and the UN, can mount a large-scale emergency response and what can be done to improve the regional and international efforts to resolve the conflict.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, you can read Alex’s article in Foreign Affairs Sudan’s Manmade Famine, our briefing Halting the Catastrophic Battle for Sudan’s El Fasher and our Sudan country page.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks with Edmund Yakani, executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, about South Sudan’s widening fiscal crisis, with the war in neighbouring Sudan cutting the government off from vital oil revenue, and what that could mean for the country’s political future. They unpack why elections, originally scheduled for later this year, are likely to be postponed again as the country struggles to build up a functioning voting infrastructure. They talk about mediation efforts under way in Kenya between the government and exiled opposition groups, the motivations of the participants and whether the talks can lead to a substantive agreement. They also assess whether South Sudan is headed for wider political turmoil as the government’s main source of revenue remains disrupted.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our statement South Sudan on Edge as Its Neighbour’s War Disrupts Oil Exports, last year’s episode with Edmund It’s Time to Start Talking About Elections in South Sudan and our South Sudan country page.