The Horn

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined again by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell to discuss Sudan’s war on the eve of its first anniversary. They talk about what’s happening on the battlefield, particularly recent gains by the Sudanese Armed Forces against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which had appeared to have the upper hand. They unpack the humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced and aid access restricted by the warring parties as famine looms. They also discuss internal dynamics within Sudan’s Armed Forces, which increasingly rely on Islamist brigades and other armed groups, and the RSF. They examine outside powers’ roles, with Egypt supporting and Iran reportedly selling drones to the army, the United Arab Emirates widely thought to be arming the RSF, and how foreign involvement has evolved. They also discuss the difficulties of getting the warring parties’ leaders to talk even about a ceasefire, let alone a more sustainable end to the fighting, and the difficulties of returning Sudan to a civilian-led post-war transition.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest statement Sudan: A Year of War and our Sudan country page.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell talks with Tom Perriello, recently appointed U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, about the obstacles to peace in Sudan after a year of fighting and Washington’s plans to revitalise diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. They unpack the challenging task of bringing the leaders of the warring parties in Sudan to the negotiating table as the conflict continues to proliferate throughout the country amid a worsening humanitarian crisis. They discuss prospects for aligning the interests of outside actors involved in the fighting, notably Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, what a concerted effort to end the conflict could look like as well as potential sticking points to a peace deal. They also talk about how the country could return to a political process once the fighting has subsided.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent statement Sudan: A Year of War and our Sudan country page.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Enrica Picco, Crisis Group’s Central Africa Project Director, about Mahamat Déby’s rule in Chad as the country heads for elections in May. They discuss Déby’s ascendance to power after the death of his father in 2021 and his initial promises for democratic transition and national dialogue. They assess the fallout of the war in Sudan in Chad and how Déby’s alleged support for the Rapid Support Forces has been received among his support base. They talk about the crackdowns on the Chadian opposition, the killing of Déby’s main political rival Yaya Dillo in February and what to expect in the elections next month. They also discuss Déby’s relations with other military leaders in the Sahel and his seeming turn to Moscow and other regional powers for security partnerships as relations with its traditional Western backers, notably France, are turning increasingly fraught.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Chad country page.

This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Alsanosi Adam, an active member of Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs), a youth-led grassroots network providing aid and basic services for civilians in many areas across the country, especially in the capital Khartoum area, about Sudan’s humanitarian crisis after almost a year of war. They talk about the harsh living conditions in Sudan’s urban areas and the difficulties civilians face in accessing food and medicine throughout the country. They unpack how the local responder networks operate in the areas controlled by the two warring parties and their challenging task of reaching civilians in need. They discuss the looming famine and the potential acceleration of the humanitarian crisis in Sudan should aid access remain restricted. They talk about how the ERRs ensure financial transparency and accountability in their operations. They also discuss what role Sudan’s grassroots networks should play in a future peace process.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out last year’s episode with Maryam Elfaki, The Future of Sudan’s Resistance Committees and our Sudan country page.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks to Diego Da Rin, Crisis Group’s Haiti expert, and Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa Director, about the latest surge in gang violence in Haiti, which has put the state on the brink of collapse, and the potential of an international mission led by Kenya to restore security. They talk about the deep crisis in Haiti and why gangs in the country are trying to overthrow Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s government. They talk about Henry’s visit to Kenya, what’s behind Nairobi’s decision to lead an international mission to Haiti and why it has faced opposition in Kenya’s courts. They assess the political risks involved for Nairobi in sending police forces to Haiti and how gangs in the country might react to such a deployment. They also discuss fast-moving events, whether Henry is now stranded abroad, and whether a foreign deployment still looks feasible. For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Haiti’s Gangs: Can a Foreign Mission Break Their Stranglehold? and our Haiti country page

In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Liesl Louw-Vaudran, Crisis Group’s senior advisor to the AU, about the highlights of the 2024 AU Summit, the continental body’s priorities for the year ahead and whether the annual summit moved the needle on addressing many of the continent’s major crises and conflicts. They break down the main files discussed at this year’s summit, particularly the worsening security crisis in eastern Congo, rising tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia over sea access and the string of coups in West Africa. They also discuss the AU’s lacklustre response to the war in Sudan and whether the body can take a more tangible role in resolving the conflict in the year ahead. They examine the AU’s push for a larger role on the global stage and deepening fault lines between AU members and Western countries, including over the war in Gaza. They also discuss the election of a new AU chair and the upcoming race for a new chair of the AU Commission. They also discuss whether African leaders think the AU is suffering an institutional crisis. For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2024 and our African Union & Regional Bodies page.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on The Horn from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa Director Murithi Mutiga to discuss Horn of Africa politics, including Ethiopia’s push for sea access, Sudan’s war, Kenya’s regional role and Gulf rivalries playing out in the region. They talk about a recently announced deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, the breakaway northern region of Somalia, that would see Ethiopia lease part of the Somaliland coast reportedly in exchange for Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s statehood. They discuss the reaction in Somalia, which rejects Somaliland independence, and whether anti-Ethiopian sentiment could strengthen Islamist militant group Al-Shabaab. They also talk about growing hostility between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They discuss increasing foreign involvement in Sudan’s war and the former paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ advances. They touch on the regional role that Kenyan President William Ruto appears to aspire to and the evolving influence of Western powers, especially the U.S., in the Horn.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, visit our Horn of Africa regional page.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa, to discuss the fallout of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding for Somalia and the region. They talk about Hargeisa’s motivations for the port deal with Addis Ababa and Mogadishu’s response. They look at what deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and Somalia could mean for the offensive against Al Shabaab as well as regional stability generally. They examine the flurry of diplomacy by Somalia aimed at rallying opposition to the deal. They also discuss whether Ethiopia could make a pitch for greater sea access that would benefit both Somalia and Somaliland.For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Horn of Africa regional page.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Christopher Clapham, Ethiopia expert and professor emeritus at the University of Cambridge. They unpack the context of Ethiopia’s major new quest for sea access, the regional tensions created by this public demand, and the tidal waves from the recent Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland that is fiercely opposed by Somalia and others. They also discuss the dire internal situation inside Ethiopia and whether the proliferating crises inside the country could continue to escalate. They also discuss the historic and current involvement of external actors in the region, including Gulf states.For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Ethiopia’s Ominous New War in Amhara and our Ethiopia country page.