Business Standard Podcast

GDP data is slated to be released today, in the evening. This comes soon after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement in the Rajya Sabha where she said that the country was not in recession yet, and won’t ever be. However, a set of data arriving today may qualify the statement to some extent. As, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) will release the data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the July to September quarter of the fiscal year 2019-20 (Q2FY20) today. The upcoming data will likely show the economy had its weakest performance last quarter in more than six years, with the growth rate dropping below the symbolically important 5% mark. It’s a culmination of several months of downbeat figures, from plunging car sales to shrinking factory output and an export slump. Why in India, 6% Economic Growth Is Cause for Alarm? India's economy probably expanded at its weakest pace in more than six years in the September quarter, a Reuters poll showed, as consumer demand and private investment weakened further and a global slowdown hit exports.  The median of a poll of economists showed annual growth in gross domestic product of 4.7 per cent in the quarter, down from 5.0 per cent in the previous three months and 7 per cent for the corresponding period of 2018.  That would be the slowest pace since the March quarter of 2013.  Besides, India was the world’s fastest-growing economy until last year, posting quarterly growth rates of as high of 9.4% in 2016.  What is the government's take on it? To know more, listen to the podcast...

Global cues, macro data, and stock-specific action will be the key factors giving direction to the markets today. Investors will await the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the September quarter, slated to be released later in the day, to get a clearer picture of the state of the economy. A Reuters poll of economists showed annual growth in GDP of 4.7 per cent in the quarter. Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) may be in focus today on report that the government has strongly advocated direct intervention by the Centre in stressed NBFCs. Further, Karvy Stock Broking has approached the Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) against the Sebi order that barred it from taking up new clients. The matter will be heard by the tribunal today. These apart, market participants will also track the oil price movement, the Rupee's trajectory against the US dollar, and foreign fund flow. On Thursday, the S&P BSE Sensex gained 110 points to close at 41,130 levels - its fresh closing high. The Nifty50 index, too, scaled a fresh closing peak of 12,154 levels, up 54 points. Besides, Reliance Industries (RIL) created history as it became the first Indian company to hit Rs 10 trillion market capitalisation.  In the currency market, the Rupee dropped by 27 paise to close at 71.62 per US dollar.  GLOBAL CUES Asian shares ticked up on Friday, but the gains were capped as investors worried that US President Donald Trump signing into law a bill backing protesters in Hong Kong could fuel tensions with China. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ticked up 0.05 per cent in early Friday trade while Japan's Nikkei gained 0.27 per cent. Oil prices ended mixed on Thursday and Brent crude lost 14 cents at $63.92 a barrel.

Equity market ended in the positive territory on Thursday - the last day of the November series of futures and options (F&O) contracts, led by ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries (RIL), TCS, and IndusInd Bank. The S&P BSE Sensex added 110 points or 0.27 per cent to close at 41,130 levels - its fresh closing high. IndusInd Bank (up over 2.50 per cent) was the biggest gainer on the index while HeroMotoCorp (down 2 per cent) emerged as the top loser. Reliance Industries (RIL) today became the first Indian company to hit Rs 10 trillion market capitalisation. The stock hit a new high of Rs 1,584 on the BSE. On the NSE, the Nifty50 index closed at its fresh closing peak of 12,154 levels, up 54 points or 0.44 per cent. The Nifty Bank index ended at 32,124 levels, up 0.8 per cent. In the broader market, both mid and smallcap stocks outperformed the market. The Nifty Midcap 100 index gained 1 per cent to end at 17,207 and the Nifty SmallCap 100 index settled at 5,759, up 0.6 per cent. Sectorally, except auto stocks, all the indices on the NSE ended in the green. Nifty PSU Bank index surged 3.44 per cent to 2,716 levels, followed by Nifty Metal index, which gained nearly 2 per cent to 2,654 levels. Buzzing stocks: Reliance Industries (RIL) on Thursday became the first Indian company to hit Rs 10 trillion market capitalisation (m-cap) after the stock price hit a new high of Rs 1,584 on the BSE. The oil-to-telecom conglomerate's m-cap zoomed to Rs 10,02,380 crore during the trade on the BSE. At close, the stock settled at Rs 1580, up over 0.65 per cent. Shares of Indiabulls Housing Finance zoomed 30 per cent to Rs 348 in the intra-day trade on the BSE on the back of heavy volumes. The stock of housing finance company zoomed 110 per cent from its low of Rs 166 touched on October 17, 2019. Shares of the company settled at Rs 334, up 25 per cent. In other news, India's economy probably expanded at its weakest pace in more than six years in the quarter to September, a Reuters poll showed, as consumer demand and private investment weakened further and a global slowdown hit exports. The median of a poll of economists showed annual growth in gross domestic product of 4.7 per cent in the quarter, down from 5.0 per cent in the previous three months and 7 per cent for the corresponding period of 2018. The Q2 GDP data is slated to be released on Friday. Global markets: A four-day rally that had lifted world stocks to near-record highs stalled on Thursday as a US bill backing Hong Kong’s protesters became law, provoking China’s ire and threatening to derail an interim trade deal between Washington and Beijing. Besides, Japanese retail figures slumped the most since 2015 as a sales tax hike dragged on the economy, exacerbating a slowdown caused by slowing exports and manufacturing. In commodities, oil prices fell for a second day on Thursday after official data showed US crude and gasoline stocks rose. Fresh tensions between the US and China, too, weighed on it.

It’s not even a month ago that messaging giant Whatsapp revealed that an Israeli software called Pegasus had been used to spy on journalists and human rights activists globally. 121 Indians were among those spied on.     Well, by this time you might be aware of the news, but if not, here’s a lowdown on it:     Google said on Tuesday it has warned 12,000 users, including 500 from India, between July and September this year, about being targeted by ‘government-backed attackers’.   What is a government-backed attack?   It’s when a nation state helps cyber criminals with funds and access to resources to attack a specified target.     Russia, North Korea, China, and Iran have been known to sponsor attacks through phishing and other means on people from different countries.   In fact, in a blogpost, Google said its Threat Analysis Group (TAG) tracks more than 270-targetes or government-backed groups from over 50 countries, without naming any entity.     TAG is a part of Google and YouTube’s broader efforts to tackle coordinated influence operations that attempt to game Google’s services. Google said it shares relevant threat information on these campaigns with law enforcement and other tech companies.     Shane Huntley, one of the members of TAG, said in a blogpost that the affected users were spread across 149 countries, and the number was similar to (up or down 10 per cent) the number of warnings sent in the same period of 2018 and 2017.   He said... Listen to the podcast to know more...

Traders may be in for a volatile session today due to the expiry of the November series of Futures and Options contracts. Apart from that, market participants will track global cues, stock-specific action, the rupee's trajectory, and foreign fund flow for market direction. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman yesterday on Wednesday defended her handling of the economy, saying that while economic growth had slowed in the past few quarters, the country was not undergoing a recession. The finance minister also touched upon the difficulties in meeting the fiscal deficit, and indirectly signalled a fiscal slippage for the year. In stock-specific news, Zee Entertainment yesterday said three directors had resigned from its board, two of them citing related-party transactions, among other reasons, for quitting. Global markets: Stocks on Wall Street set all-time highs after a batch of US economic data brightened the economic outlook. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.15 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 0.42 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.66 per cent. Asian share markets wobbled on Thursday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was little changed in early trade, while Japan's Nikkei flitted in and out of positive territory. SGX Nifty, signaled a subdued start to the day for domestic indices. In commodities, oil eased on Wednesday although losses were limited by optimism that a U.S.-China trade deal would be reached soon. Brent crude futures settled at $64.06 a barrel, down 21 cents. Back home,  equity benchmarks ended at fresh closing high on Wednesday. The S&P BSE Sensex climbed 199 points to end at 41,021, and the Nifty50 index closed at a record high of 12,101. According to analysts, traders should buy every dip keep a close eye on 12,000 where the maximum put open interest exists. However, 12,200 should act as a resistance. If Nifty is able to breach level of 12,200 it will lead to short covering move up to 12,270. Here's a trading idea by by CapitalVia Global Research Limited who recommend buying Maruti Suzuki India Limited above Rs 7,301 for the target of Rs 7,540 with stop-loss at 7,150.

Continuing their bull run, equity benchmarks ended at fresh closing high on Wednesday, led by buying in financial, auto and metal counters. Optimism surrounding the signing of the first phase of a US-China trade deal also boosted investor sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex climbed 199 points or 0.49 per cent to end at 41,021, - its fresh closing peak. Also, it was the for first time that the index settled above the crucial 41,000-mark. Sensex hit an all-time high of 41,120.28 in the intra-day trade on Tuesday. HDFC, Reliance Industries (RIL), SBI, HUL, and Maruti contributed the most to the index's gains today. Out of 30 constituents, 24 ended in the green.  On the NSE, the frontline index Nifty closed at a record high of 12,100.70 with 37 constituents advancing and 13 declining. Nifty Bank, too, ended at a fresh closing high of 31,875.95 levels. In the broader market, midcaps outperformed the benchmarks while small-caps were subdued. The Nifty Midcap 100 index added 0.76 per cent to end at 17,043 levels while The Nifty SmallCap ended flat at 5,723, up just 0.04 per cent.  Sectorally, barring realty and media stocks, all the indices ended in the green. PSU bank stocks gained the most with the Nifty PSU Bank index rising nearly 2 per cent to 2,625 levels. Nifty Auto index added 1.27 per cent to close at 8,203 levels.  Buzzing stocks of the day: Shares of YES Bank climbed up to 9 per cent to Rs 68.85 during the session after the private sector lender announced that its board will meet on Friday to consider raising of funds. It ended at Rs 68.25 apiece, up 7.65 per cent. YES Bank also ended as the top gainer on the Sensex.   Shares of automobiles along with auto ancillaries companies gained on reports that the Cabinet may consider approving scrappage policy in today's meet. Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharat Forge and Ashok Leyland from the Nifty Auto index climbed 3 per cent each on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Maruti Suzuki India, Eicher Motors, Hero MotoCorp, TVS Motor Company and Bajaj Auto were all up in the range of 1-2 per cent each. SBI regained 3 trillion market capitalisation. The stock ended at Rs 343.6, up nearly 2.50 per cent.  RBL Bank hit a 2-month high of Rs 369, up 6 per cent in intra-day trade, on the BSE on report that the private lender is looking to raise up to Rs 2,000 crore through a QIP offering. The stock ended at Rs 368, up over 5.50 per cent.  Global markets: European shares touched a four-year high in early trading, as comments from US President Donald Trump sparked hopes of an imminent resolution to the drawn-out trade war with China. Trump said on Tuesday that Washington was in the “final throes” of work on an initial trade agreement, adding to optimism from earlier in the day when Beijing said top negotiators from both countries had reached a consensus on “resolving relevant problems”. In Asia, however, China shares fell as weak industrial profit data highlighted growing strains on the economy. At the close, the Shanghai Composite index fell 0.1 per cent to 2,903.19 and the blue-chip CSI300 index was down 0.4 per cent, while most other Asian markets gained on hopes of a deal. In commodities, oil prices slipped after an industry report showed a surprise build-up in US crude inventories, but optimism surrounding the signing of the first phase of a US-China trade deal prevented a bigger slide in prices.

What are the latest changes On Friday, Asia Index announced that Automobile giant Tata Motors, Tata Motors DVR (Tata Motors with differential voting right ), along with lender Yes Bank, and natural resources major Vedanta will be dropped from the BSE's benchmark Sensex. In their places, UltraTech Cement, Titan Co Ltd and Nestle India will be added to the index. The changes will be effective from Monday, December 23, 2019, Asia Index said in a statement. Besides, UPL Ltd and Dabur India will find a place in the S&P BSE Sensex 50, replacing Indiabulls Housing Finance and Yes Bank. However, there was no change in the S&P BSE Bankex. Why does the reshuffle happen This is a part of the reconstitution exercise by Asia Index, which is a joint venture between S&P Dow Jones Indices and the BSE. This involves re-evaluation of the constituents of a particular index. It deals with addition and removal of stocks from the index and their re-ranking based on the current market situation. Since the Sensex shows which way the economy is heading, a periodic reshuffle of the 30-share portfolio is carried out. Some stocks are included while some others get the boot.   Why were few stocks dropped from Sensex recently In the latest reshuffle Tata Motors was taken out of the index. This happened because the stock has under-performed the benchmark index amid slowdown in the the domestic automobile sector over the last few months. Shares of Tata Motors on Tuesday( Nov 26) closed 1.36 per cent lower at Rs 163.80 on the BSE.  Similarly, the private sector lender Yes Bank  has been going through a rough phase lately. This is because of the worries regarding asset quality. Yes Bank shares have dipped around 65 per cent till date.  Shares of Yes Bank fell nearly 4 per cent in intraday trade on Monday after the announcement that it will be dropped from BSE benchmark Sensex from December 23.  The year has not been a rewarding one for investors of the mining and metals stock Vedanta too, with the stock falling almost 30 per cent.   How will this affect investors Most direct investors in stocks watch Sensex and Nifty closely for clues in the market. It is simply because the stocks in these are supposed to be the best, in performance, earnings and other key parameters. The moment a periodic reshuffle is carried out in the Sensex, there is a lot of buzz as retail investors carefully look at the stocks comprising these benchmark indices. Immediately, the ousted stocks start falling sharply, whereas the those coming in start rising.  When a stock goes out or enters the index, number of global and domestic index funds alter their portfolio as they mirror the benchmark indices. And thereby they have to buy all the stocks in the index and in the same proportion. For stocks exiting the index, there is a sharp fall because fund managers want to/have to exit these stocks to balance their portfolios. As a result, they sell, sometimes in big tranches. So, from being over-owned, these stocks become under-owned. For individual retail investors, experts say buying one when it enters the index can be a good strategy. But, it has to be within a day or two of the announcement, as fund managers rush to rebalance their portfolios. If you miss the bus in the initial days, it makes more sense to wait for the first quarterly results.  Listen to the podcast to know more

Traders are likely to witness a volatile session today due to the imminent expiry of the November series derivative contracts even as the latest development in the US-China trade talks may keep the overall sentiment positive. Market players will adjust their positions ahead of the weekly and monthly expiry of Futures and Options contracts tomorrow.  The rebalancing of MSCI indices will be effective starting today. Berger Paints India, Colgate-Palmolive, DLF, HDFC Asset Management Company, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, Info Edge, SBI Life Insurance and Siemens India will be added to MSCI India Index. Conversely, four stocks -- Glenmark Pharma, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Vodafone Idea and Yes Bank will be axed from the index. That apart, developments in Maharashtra with respect to the formation of the government could weigh on investor sentiment. On the US-China trade talks front, US President Donald Trump said the United States and China were close to an agreement on the first phase of a deal while stressing Washington’s support for protesters in Hong Kong, a point of contention between the world’s two largest economies. Consequently, US stocks crawled higher on Tuesday and all three major Wall Street indexes notched record levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite added about 0.2 per cent. Asian shares ticked higher in Wednesday's early trade. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.14 per cent. Australian shares added 0.46 per cent and Japan's Nikkei rose 0.41 per cent. The SGX Nifty, though, was trading with slight cut, indicating a flat to negative start for the domestic indices. Oil prices rose on Tuesday after news that U.S. and Chinese officials discussed trade. Brent crude futures gained 62 cents to settle at $64.27 a barrel. Back home, benchmark indices ended yesterday's session with minor cuts after touching record high during the day. The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 40,821 levels, down 68 points and NSE's Nifty50 index settled at 12,038, down 36 points. According to analysts, the bullish technical setup of Nifty is well-maintained and the index is heading towards the upside target of 12,300. Longs should be protected with the stoploss of 11900. Here's a trading idea by HDFC Securities who recommend buying Canara Bank at Rs 222.7 for the target of Rs 250 with stop-loss at Rs 214.